Greuther Fürth U19 1–1 Mainz 05 U19: Result & Stats

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mainz 05 U19

C. Meister 84'

S. Pavisic 44'

4/23/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 20Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1924%

×Draw20%

Mainz 05 U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.20

Greuther Fürth U19

1.39

Mainz 05 U19

2.20

Mainz 05 U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 70 away

1.54

creates per match

2.33

2.07

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

Mainz 05 U19

2.33

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

2.07

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

44%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Mainz 05 U19

80%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

76%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

10%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

75%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

40%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

16%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

89%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

64%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.33 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

56%

Mainz 05 U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Krasniqi← N. Grimbs

44'

61'

74'

77'

77'

J. Zimmermann← L. Mrozek

84'

C. Meister

87'

M. Roos-Trujillo← B. Gruda

Greuther

Mainz

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Hilbert

28'▲A. Krasniqi←▼N. Grimbs

61'▲C. Meister←▼N. Höhn

77'▲J. Simon←▼K. Aydin

77'▲J. Zimmermann←▼L. Mrozek

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

KrasniqiMeisterSimonZimmermannMottlMagdušauskas

Manager: B. Hoffmann

74'▲M. Makey←▼Y. Azahaf

87'▲M. Roos-Trujillo←▼B. Gruda

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

MakeyRoos-TrujilloKochGrigorijsMartinovicMüller

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 1–1 Mainz 05 U19

Greuther Fürth U19 and Mainz 05 U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: S. Pavisic (44'), C. Meister (84').

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 1–1 Mainz 05 U19