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Greuther Fürth U19 vs Kickers Offenbach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Greuther Fürth U19
Greuther Fürth U19
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kickers Offenbach U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
11/2/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 11Julius Hirsch Sportzentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1955%
×Draw20%
Kickers Offenbach U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth U19
2.25
Kickers Offenbach U19
1.48

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19
1.45
Kickers Offenbach U19
0.98

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19
1.98
Kickers Offenbach U19
3.06

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par
Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Kickers Offenbach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw
75%
Greuther Fürth U19 or Kickers Offenbach U19
80%
Draw or Kickers Offenbach U19
45%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+
33%
Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals
89%
Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals
65%
Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals
39%
Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals
77%
Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals
43%
Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Kickers Offenbach U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.06 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 0.98 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more
25%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Greuther
Kickers
R. Hilbert
Manager: R. Hilbert
S. Stuppia
Manager: S. Stuppia

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 6–1 Kickers Offenbach U19

Greuther Fürth U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Julius Hirsch Sportzentrum in Fürth.