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Greuther Fürth U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Greuther Fürth U19
Greuther Fürth U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Kaiserslautern U19
Kaiserslautern U19
3/1/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1940%
×Draw21%
Kaiserslautern U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth U19
1.90
Kaiserslautern U19
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19
1.53
Kaiserslautern U19
1.66

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19
2.10
Kaiserslautern U19
2.27

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par
Kaiserslautern U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Kaiserslautern U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw
61%
Greuther Fürth U19 or Kaiserslautern U19
79%
Draw or Kaiserslautern U19
60%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+
21%
Kaiserslautern U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals
85%
Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals
56%
Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals
29%
Kaiserslautern U19 1+ goals
85%
Kaiserslautern U19 2+ goals
56%
Kaiserslautern U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)
50%
Kaiserslautern U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 60 matches

Kaiserslautern U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.53 + Kaiserslautern U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Kaiserslautern U19 attack 1.66 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more
40%
level
21%
Kaiserslautern U19 scores more
39%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Greuther Fürth U19 1 – 4 Kaiserslautern U19

Kaiserslautern U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth in Fürth.