Greuther Fürth U19 5–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

C. Meister 70'

D. Angleberger 27'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1975%

×Draw13%

Hessen Kassel U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchHessen Kassel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.27

1.24

Greuther Fürth U19

3.27

Hessen Kassel U19

1.24

Greuther Fürth U19 creates 164% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

0.50

1.98

allows per match

5.10

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Hessen Kassel U19

0.50

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Hessen Kassel U19

5.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Hessen Kassel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

89%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Hessen Kassel U19

87%

Draw or Hessen Kassel U19

25%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

57%

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

96%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

83%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

62%

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

71%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

35%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Hessen Kassel U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 5.10 → ÷2 → 3.27

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.50 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

75%

level

13%

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

11%

Greuther Fürth U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Greuther Fürth U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

P. Götzelmann

8'

M. Hirschmann

27'

D. Angleberger

46'

F. di Giglio← S. Yigitoglu

46'

M. Felmeden← M. Porada

46'

T. Leinhos← F. Bindbeutel

57'

V. Magdušauskas

61'

J. Hendricks← M. Hirschmann

61'

L. Kuschka← P. Götzelmann

61'

O. Schmidhauser← K. Aydin

67'

C. Meister← Y. Raab

67'

S. Petrovic← R. Schmacke

70'

C. Meister

Greuther

Hessen

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Götzelman

⚽

▼

Hirschman

▼

Aydin

Manager: R. Hilbert

61'▲J. Hendricks←▼M. Hirschmann

61'▲L. Kuschka←▼P. Götzelmann

61'▲O. Schmidhauser←▼K. Aydin

67'▲C. Meister←▼Y. Raab

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

HendricksKuschkaSchmidhauserMeisterOrtiusMrozekBöhnke

Manager: A. Noja

46'▲F. di Giglio←▼S. Yigitoglu

46'▲M. Felmeden←▼M. Porada

46'▲T. Leinhos←▼F. Bindbeutel

67'▲S. Petrovic←▼R. Schmacke

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

GiglioFelmedenLeinhosPetrovicArslanFarcasTrittel

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 5–0 Hessen Kassel U19

Greuther Fürth U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 5, 2022.

Goals: P. Götzelmann (3'), M. Hirschmann (8'), D. Angleberger (27'), V. Magdušauskas (57'), C. Meister (70').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Sportanlage Fürth Kronacher Str. 177 in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Hessen Kassel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 5–0 Hessen Kassel U19