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Greuther Fürth U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Greuther Fürth U19
Greuther Fürth U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Bayern München U19
Bayern München U19
4/27/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 24Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1926%
×Draw20%
Bayern München U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth U19
1.61
Bayern München U19
2.38

Bayern München U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 70 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19
1.53
Bayern München U19
2.67

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19
2.10
Bayern München U19
1.70

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par
Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw
46%
Greuther Fürth U19 or Bayern München U19
80%
Draw or Bayern München U19
74%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+
12%
Bayern München U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals
80%
Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals
48%
Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals
22%
Bayern München U19 1+ goals
91%
Bayern München U19 2+ goals
68%
Bayern München U19 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)
32%
Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 60 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.53 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bayern München U19 attack 2.67 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more
26%
level
20%
Bayern München U19 scores more
54%

Bayern München U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.