Greuther Fürth U19 0–1 Augsburg U19: Result & Stats

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Augsburg U19

8/17/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 4Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1936%

×Draw22%

Augsburg U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchAugsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.94

Greuther Fürth U19

1.79

Augsburg U19

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 71 away

1.53

creates per match

1.77

2.10

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.53

Augsburg U19

1.77

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

2.10

Augsburg U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

58%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Augsburg U19

78%

Draw or Augsburg U19

64%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

19%

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

83%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

53%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

26%

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

58%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.10 · 60 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.06 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.53 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Augsburg U19 attack 1.77 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

Augsburg U19 scores more

42%

Augsburg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff