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Greuther Fürth II vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
2/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Greuther Fürth II42%
×Draw25%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth II
1.52
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.31

Greuther Fürth II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 90 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.42
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.18

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.45
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.62

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par
Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw
67%
Greuther Fürth II or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
75%
Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
58%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
21%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
78%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
45%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
20%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
73%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
38%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
56%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more
42%
level
25%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
33%

Greuther Fürth II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth II vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Greuther Fürth II beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1 in Fürth.