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Greuther Fürth II vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Garching
Garching
8/10/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 6Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Greuther Fürth II54%
×Draw21%
Garching25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth II
2.13
Garching
1.39

Greuther Fürth II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 12 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.42
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.45
Garching
2.83

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw
75%
Greuther Fürth II or Garching
79%
Draw or Garching
46%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
32%
Garching wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
88%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
63%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
35%
Garching 1+ goals
75%
Garching 2+ goals
40%
Garching 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
69%
Garching (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Garching attack 1.33 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more
54%
level
21%
Garching scores more
25%

Greuther Fürth II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Greuther Fürth II 2–1 Garching

Greuther Fürth II beat Garching 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1 in Fürth.