Greuther Fürth II 2–1 Eintracht Bamberg

Greuther Fürth II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Bamberg

8/26/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 6Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Greuther Fürth II51%

×Draw24%

Eintracht Bamberg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth IIExpected goals in this matchEintracht Bamberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.14

Greuther Fürth II

1.71

Eintracht Bamberg

1.14

Greuther Fürth II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

1.42

creates per match

0.82

1.45

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.42

Eintracht Bamberg

0.82

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.45

Eintracht Bamberg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw

75%

Greuther Fürth II or Eintracht Bamberg

76%

Draw or Eintracht Bamberg

49%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+

27%

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals

82%

Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals

51%

Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals

24%

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

68%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

32%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)

67%

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more

51%

level

24%

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

25%

Greuther Fürth II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff