Greuther Fürth II 1–2 Aubstadt: Result & Stats

Greuther Fürth II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Aubstadt

L. Akhalaia 51'

T. Pitter 37'

S. Sturm 25'

8/2/2025

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Greuther Fürth II40%

×Draw24%

Aubstadt36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth IIExpected goals in this matchAubstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.46

Greuther Fürth II

1.57

Aubstadt

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

1.42

creates per match

1.47

1.45

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.42

Aubstadt

1.47

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II

1.45

Aubstadt

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Aubstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Aubstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw

64%

Greuther Fürth II or Aubstadt

76%

Draw or Aubstadt

60%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+

20%

Aubstadt wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals

79%

Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals

46%

Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals

21%

Aubstadt 1+ goals

77%

Aubstadt 2+ goals

43%

Aubstadt 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)

53%

Aubstadt (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Aubstadt away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.72 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Aubstadt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Aubstadt attack 1.47 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more

40%

level

24%

Aubstadt scores more

36%

Greuther Fürth II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Sturm

37'

T. Pitter

51'

L. Akhalaia

Greuther

Aubstadt

Manager: L. Haas

Manager: J. Grell