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Gretna 2008 vs Stirling University — League #731 2026

Gretna 2008
Gretna 2008
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Stirling University
Stirling University
11/4/2025League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gretna 200861%
×Draw18%
Stirling University21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gretna 2008
2.62
Stirling University
1.50

Gretna 2008 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 23 away

creates per match

Gretna 2008
2.75
Stirling University
1.00

allows per match

Gretna 2008
2.00
Stirling University
2.48

finishing

Gretna 2008+0.00on par
Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gretna 2008 ↓

Stirling University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Gretna 2008 or draw
79%
Gretna 2008 or Stirling University
82%
Draw or Stirling University
39%

Winning margin

Gretna 2008 wins by 2+
40%
Stirling University wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gretna 2008 1+ goals
93%
Gretna 2008 2+ goals
73%
Gretna 2008 3+ goals
48%
Stirling University 1+ goals
78%
Stirling University 2+ goals
44%
Stirling University 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)
74%
Stirling University (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gretna 2008 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gretna 2008 attack 2.75 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.62

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Gretna 2008 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gretna 2008 scores more
61%
level
18%
Stirling University scores more
21%

Gretna 2008 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gretna 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gretna 2008 vs Stirling University

Gretna 2008 and Stirling University drew 2-2 in League #731 on November 4, 2025.