Gretna 2008 1–0 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

Gretna 2008

1 – 0

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

9/21/2019

FA Cup · 1st RoundRaydale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gretna 200830%

×Draw23%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gretna 2008Expected goals in this matchHill Of Beath Hawthorn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.83

Gretna 2008

1.40

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.83

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Gretna 2008

1.67

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.00

allows per match

Gretna 2008

1.67

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gretna 2008+0.00on par

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gretna 2008 ↓

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn →

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gretna 2008 or draw

52%

Gretna 2008 or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

77%

Draw or Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

70%

Winning margin

Gretna 2008 wins by 2+

13%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gretna 2008 1+ goals

75%

Gretna 2008 2+ goals

41%

Gretna 2008 3+ goals

17%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

84%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

54%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gretna 2008 (draw refunded)

38%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gretna 2008 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gretna 2008 attack 1.67 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 2.00 + Gretna 2008 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gretna 2008 scores more

30%

level

23%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

48%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff