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Grenoble vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rodez
Rodez
1/31/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Grenoble42%
×Draw28%
Rodez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.26
Rodez
1.02

Grenoble creates 24% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 124 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.19
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Grenoble
0.93
Rodez
1.33

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
70%
Grenoble or Rodez
72%
Draw or Rodez
58%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
19%
Rodez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
72%
Grenoble 2+ goals
36%
Grenoble 3+ goals
13%
Rodez 1+ goals
64%
Rodez 2+ goals
27%
Rodez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
58%
Rodez (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Rodez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Rodez attack 1.11 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grenoble scores more
42%
level
28%
Rodez scores more
30%

Grenoble at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grenoble vs Rodez

Grenoble beat Rodez 2-1 in Ligue 2 on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.