Grenoble 1–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niort

J. Benet 45+1'

8/10/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Grenoble48%

×Draw28%

Niort24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.89

Grenoble

1.37

Niort

0.89

Grenoble creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 93 away

1.19

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Grenoble

1.19

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Grenoble

0.93

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

76%

Grenoble or Niort

72%

Draw or Niort

52%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

23%

Niort wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

75%

Grenoble 2+ goals

40%

Grenoble 3+ goals

16%

Niort 1+ goals

59%

Niort 2+ goals

22%

Niort 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

66%

Niort (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Niort attack 0.84 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Grenoble scores more

48%

level

28%

Niort scores more

24%

Grenoble at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Benet

Grenoble · M

8.6

Match Events

30'

Youssouf M'Changama

31'

Valentin Jacob

45+1'

J. Benet↳ Y. M'Changama

46'

J. Da Costa← M. Sans

46'

Y. Bourhane← V. Jacob

58'

G. Koyalipou← L. Ameka

67'

M. Chergui← A. El Jadeyaoui

73'

Dylan Louiserre

76'

Cyriaque Rivieryan

77'

J. Jighauri← L. Boussaha

85'

Julien Da Costa

87'

J. Delétraz← I. Coulibaly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleNiort

Overview

43%Possession57%

18Total Shots10

5Corners8

9Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target0

10Off Target6

3Blocked4

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

299Total Passes396

211Accurate Passes290

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

6Offsides2