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Grenoble vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metz
Metz
Fali Candé 52'
12/30/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Grenoble31%
×Draw29%
Metz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.01
Metz
1.17

Metz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 62 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.18
Metz
1.39

allows per match

Grenoble
0.95
Metz
0.84

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
61%
Grenoble or Metz
71%
Draw or Metz
69%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
12%
Metz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
64%
Grenoble 2+ goals
27%
Grenoble 3+ goals
8%
Metz 1+ goals
69%
Metz 2+ goals
33%
Metz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
44%
Metz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.95 · 137 matches

Metz away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.18 + Metz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Metz attack 1.39 + Grenoble defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Grenoble scores more
31%
level
29%
Metz scores more
39%

Metz at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Fali CandéMetzMetz · D
7.9

Match Events

52'
Fali Candé
56'
S. Touray← J. Jeno
57'
M. Phaëton← A. Tchaptchet
63'
Saikou Touray
71'
J. Tell← A. Ngando
73'
A. Atta← Y. Maziz
78'
B. Kouyaté← C. Sabaly
82'
J. Correa← F. Bambock
83'
L. Joseph← L. Gueye

Possession

53%Grenoble

Shots

10Grenoble

Pass accuracy

51%Grenoble

Statistics

GrenobleMetz
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots9
6Corners2
14Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target2
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
5Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
483Total Passes434
387Accurate Passes333
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
1Yellow Cards0

Grenoble 0 – 1 Metz

Metz beat Grenoble 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 30, 2022.

Goals: Fali Candé (52').

Grenoble controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.