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Grenoble vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laval
Laval
8/16/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Grenoble43%
×Draw29%
Laval28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.23
Laval
0.95

Grenoble creates 29% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 75 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.19
Laval
0.97

allows per match

Grenoble
0.93
Laval
1.28

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
72%
Grenoble or Laval
71%
Draw or Laval
57%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
19%
Laval wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
71%
Grenoble 2+ goals
35%
Grenoble 3+ goals
13%
Laval 1+ goals
61%
Laval 2+ goals
25%
Laval 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
60%
Laval (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Laval away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Laval defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Laval attack 0.97 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grenoble scores more
43%
level
29%
Laval scores more
28%

Grenoble at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Grenoble 2–1 Laval

Grenoble beat Laval 2-1 in Ligue 2 on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.