Grenoble 1–0 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Grenoble

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estac Troyes

M. Djitte 86'

5/9/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Grenoble36%

×Draw30%

Estac Troyes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenobleExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.03

Grenoble

1.08

Estac Troyes

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 105 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

0.93

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Grenoble

1.19

Estac Troyes

1.14

allows per match

Grenoble

0.93

Estac Troyes

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw

66%

Grenoble or Estac Troyes

70%

Draw or Estac Troyes

64%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+

14%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals

66%

Grenoble 2+ goals

29%

Grenoble 3+ goals

10%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

64%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

28%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)

52%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Grenoble scores more

36%

level

30%

Estac Troyes scores more

34%

Grenoble at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Diop

Grenoble · G

8.5

Match Events

43'

46'

66'

67'

67'

K. Diawara← M. Detourbet

67'

M. El Idrissy← R. Ripart

72'

M. Mion← L. Bernadou

76'

E. Odede← T. Bentayeb

81'

G. Paquiez← S. Delos

82'

M. Bechikh← S. Diba

86'

M. Djitte↳ M. Bechikh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrenobleEstac

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots11

2Corners10

11Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots11

3On Target3

2Off Target5

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

412Total Passes540

350Accurate Passes470

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2