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Grenoble vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
3/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 26Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Grenoble44%
×Draw30%
Ajaccio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.20
Ajaccio
0.84

Grenoble creates 43% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 107 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.19
Ajaccio
0.75

allows per match

Grenoble
0.93
Ajaccio
1.21

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
74%
Grenoble or Ajaccio
70%
Draw or Ajaccio
56%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
19%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
70%
Grenoble 2+ goals
34%
Grenoble 3+ goals
12%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
57%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
21%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
63%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.21 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Ajaccio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ajaccio attack 0.75 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grenoble scores more
44%
level
30%
Ajaccio scores more
26%

Grenoble at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Grenoble 2–2 Ajaccio

Grenoble and Ajaccio drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.