Grenada 4–1 British Virgin Islands: Result & Stats

Grenada

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

British Virgin Islands

D. Phillip 90', 76'

M. Hippolyte 39', 10'

Unknown 73'

10/8/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grenada56%

×Draw23%

British Virgin Islands21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrenadaExpected goals in this matchBritish Virgin Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.06

Grenada

1.86

British Virgin Islands

1.06

Grenada creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.73

creates per match

0.40

1.73

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Grenada

1.73

British Virgin Islands

0.40

allows per match

Grenada

1.73

British Virgin Islands

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grenada+0.00on par

British Virgin Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenada ↓

British Virgin Islands →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Grenada or draw

79%

Grenada or British Virgin Islands

77%

Draw or British Virgin Islands

44%

Winning margin

Grenada wins by 2+

32%

British Virgin Islands wins by 2+

Team goals

Grenada 1+ goals

84%

Grenada 2+ goals

55%

Grenada 3+ goals

28%

British Virgin Islands 1+ goals

65%

British Virgin Islands 2+ goals

29%

British Virgin Islands 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Grenada (draw refunded)

72%

British Virgin Islands (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Grenada at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

British Virgin Islands away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Grenada attack 1.73 + British Virgin Islands defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

British Virgin Islands attack 0.40 + Grenada defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Grenada scores more

56%

level

23%

British Virgin Islands scores more

21%

Grenada at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Grenada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

M. Hippolyte

39'

M. Hippolyte

73'

76'

D. Phillip

90'

D. Phillip

Grenada

British

⚽2

Manager: Anthony Benedict Modeste

Grenada substitutes

1RichardsonCharles6TelesfordRohanWilliams22Thomas15Francis19Phillip14GriffithClarksonValcinPhillip

Manager: David Pérez Asensio

British Virgin Islands substitutes

18Foden22Abrams15Abrams13SmithWilliamsL.PrinceTan

Match Recap: Grenada vs British Virgin Islands

Grenada beat British Virgin Islands 4-1 in Friendlies on October 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Hippolyte (10', 39'), ? (73'), D. Phillip (76', 90').

Grenada vs British Virgin Islands — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grenada vs British Virgin Islands