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Gremio W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio W
Gremio W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
5/30/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Gremio W46%
×Draw26%
Sao Jose W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio W
1.50
Sao Jose W
1.10

Gremio W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 37 away

creates per match

Gremio W
1.60
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Gremio W
1.15
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Gremio W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio W or draw
72%
Gremio W or Sao Jose W
74%
Draw or Sao Jose W
54%

Winning margin

Gremio W wins by 2+
23%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gremio W 1+ goals
78%
Gremio W 2+ goals
44%
Gremio W 3+ goals
19%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
67%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
30%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gremio W (draw refunded)
63%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio W attack 1.60 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Gremio W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gremio W scores more
46%
level
26%
Sao Jose W scores more
28%

Gremio W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Gremio W 2–1 Sao Jose W

Gremio W beat Sao Jose W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.