Gremio W 1–0 Real Ariquemes W: Result & Stats

Gremio W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ariquemes W

Rafa Levis 87' (pen)

5/13/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gremio W77%

×Draw14%

Real Ariquemes W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio WExpected goals in this matchReal Ariquemes W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.74

0.82

Gremio W

2.74

Real Ariquemes W

0.82

Gremio W creates 234% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

0.50

1.15

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Gremio W

1.60

Real Ariquemes W

0.50

allows per match

Gremio W

1.15

Real Ariquemes W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio W+0.00on par

Real Ariquemes W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio W ↓

Real Ariquemes W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Gremio W or draw

91%

Gremio W or Real Ariquemes W

86%

Draw or Real Ariquemes W

23%

Winning margin

Gremio W wins by 2+

56%

Real Ariquemes W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gremio W 1+ goals

93%

Gremio W 2+ goals

75%

Gremio W 3+ goals

51%

Real Ariquemes W 1+ goals

56%

Real Ariquemes W 2+ goals

20%

Real Ariquemes W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gremio W (draw refunded)

90%

Real Ariquemes W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Real Ariquemes W away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio W attack 1.60 + Real Ariquemes W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.74

Real Ariquemes W attack 0.50 + Gremio W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Gremio W scores more

77%

level

14%

Real Ariquemes W scores more

9%

Gremio W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Cássia← Caty

77'

Dani Barão← Stephanie Brito

79'

G. Martínez← Jack

83'

Emmily Karla← Raissa Bahia

87'

Rafa LevisPenalty

Gremio

Real

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Felipe Endres

66'▲Cássia←▼Caty

77'▲Dani Barão←▼Stephanie Brito

83'▲Emmily Karla←▼Raissa Bahia

Gremio W substitutes

CássiaBarãoKarlaPedraPaixãoGiacomelSanchezTainá

Manager: Paulo Eduardo

79'▲G. Martínez←▼Jack

Real Ariquemes W substitutes

MartínezAliceDulceGeisiNanyThaísa

Match Recap: Gremio W vs Real Ariquemes W

Gremio W beat Real Ariquemes W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 13, 2023.

Goals: Rafa Levis (87' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Gremio W vs Real Ariquemes W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Gremio W vs Real Ariquemes W