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Gremio W vs Napoli W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio W
Gremio W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Napoli W
Napoli W
6/2/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gremio W79%
×Draw13%
Napoli W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio W
2.87
Napoli W
0.82

Gremio W creates 250% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gremio W
1.60
Napoli W
0.50

allows per match

Gremio W
1.15
Napoli W
4.13

finishing

Gremio W+0.00on par
Napoli W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio W ↓

Napoli W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gremio W or draw
92%
Gremio W or Napoli W
87%
Draw or Napoli W
21%

Winning margin

Gremio W wins by 2+
59%
Napoli W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gremio W 1+ goals
94%
Gremio W 2+ goals
77%
Gremio W 3+ goals
53%
Napoli W 1+ goals
56%
Napoli W 2+ goals
20%
Napoli W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gremio W (draw refunded)
91%
Napoli W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Napoli W away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio W attack 1.60 + Napoli W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.87

Napoli W attack 0.50 + Gremio W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Gremio W scores more
79%
level
13%
Napoli W scores more
8%

Gremio W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio W vs Napoli W

Gremio W beat Napoli W 5-1 in Brasileiro Women on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.