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Gremio W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio W
Gremio W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
4/29/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Antônio Vieira Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Gremio W57%
×Draw24%
Minas ICESP W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio W
1.72
Minas ICESP W
0.89

Gremio W creates 93% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gremio W
1.60
Minas ICESP W
0.63

allows per match

Gremio W
1.15
Minas ICESP W
1.83

finishing

Gremio W+0.00on par
Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio W ↓

Minas ICESP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio W or draw
81%
Gremio W or Minas ICESP W
76%
Draw or Minas ICESP W
43%

Winning margin

Gremio W wins by 2+
32%
Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gremio W 1+ goals
82%
Gremio W 2+ goals
51%
Gremio W 3+ goals
25%
Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
59%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
22%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gremio W (draw refunded)
75%
Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio W attack 1.60 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Gremio W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gremio W scores more
57%
level
24%
Minas ICESP W scores more
19%

Gremio W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio W vs Minas ICESP W

Gremio W beat Minas ICESP W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Vieira Ramos in Gravataí, Rio Grande do Sul.