Gremio W 1–0 ESMAC W: Result & Stats

Gremio W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ESMAC W

Priscila 43' (pen)

4/16/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio João Corrêa da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gremio W66%

×Draw18%

ESMAC W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio WExpected goals in this matchESMAC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.07

Gremio W

2.37

ESMAC W

1.07

Gremio W creates 121% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.15

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Gremio W

1.60

ESMAC W

1.00

allows per match

Gremio W

1.15

ESMAC W

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio W+0.00on par

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio W ↓

ESMAC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gremio W or draw

84%

Gremio W or ESMAC W

82%

Draw or ESMAC W

34%

Winning margin

Gremio W wins by 2+

43%

ESMAC W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Gremio W 1+ goals

91%

Gremio W 2+ goals

68%

Gremio W 3+ goals

42%

ESMAC W 1+ goals

66%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

29%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gremio W (draw refunded)

81%

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

ESMAC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio W attack 1.60 + ESMAC W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.37

ESMAC W attack 1.00 + Gremio W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gremio W scores more

66%

level

18%

ESMAC W scores more

16%

Gremio W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gremio W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Lorena Castro← Vih Moreira

43'

PriscilaPenalty

46'

Emmily Karla← Thaisa Renata

46'

Letícia Pantoja← Radija

46'

Luciene Baião← Lorraine Caixeta

62'

Dani Barão← Catyellen

78'

Gabizinha← Dani

Gremio

ESMAC

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Patrícia Gusmão

62'▲Dani Barão←▼Catyellen

78'▲Gabizinha←▼Dani

Gremio W substitutes

BarãoGabizinhaGuimarãesCláudiaPedraIasmimCabralPazThiellen

Manager: Mercy Nunes

21'▲Lorena Castro←▼Vih Moreira

46'▲Emmily Karla←▼Thaisa Renata

46'▲Letícia Pantoja←▼Radija

46'▲Luciene Baião←▼Lorraine Caixeta

ESMAC W substitutes

CastroKarlaPantojaBaiãoValleIzaMikaMilena