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Gremio vs The Strongest — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Gremio
Gremio
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
The Strongest
The Strongest
Gustavo Nunes 89'
Everton Galdino 67'
João Pedro 50'
Y. Soteldo 14'
5/29/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Gremio75%
×Draw18%
The Strongest7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio
2.08
The Strongest
0.46

Gremio creates 352% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gremio
1.75
The Strongest
0.18

allows per match

Gremio
0.75
The Strongest
2.41

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par
The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

The Strongest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gremio or draw
93%
Gremio or The Strongest
82%
Draw or The Strongest
25%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+
50%
The Strongest wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals
87%
Gremio 2+ goals
61%
Gremio 3+ goals
34%
The Strongest 1+ goals
37%
The Strongest 2+ goals
8%
The Strongest 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)
91%
The Strongest (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

The Strongest away — creates 0.18, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.75 + The Strongest defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.08

The Strongest attack 0.18 + Gremio defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Gremio scores more
75%
level
18%
The Strongest scores more
7%

Gremio at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
João PedroGremioGremio · D
8.2

Match Events

14'
Y. Soteldo↳ Diego Costa
16'
Walter Kannemann
28'
Darío Aimar
37'
Adrián Jusino
50'
João Pedro↳ Pepê
53'
Álvaro Quiroga
67'
Everton Galdino
69'
F. Carballo← W. Kannemann
69'
Gustavo Nunes← Everton Galdino
69'
Nathan Fernandes← Y. Soteldo
74'
J. Chura← R. Ramallo
74'
B. Miranda← M. Ortega
80'
JP Galvão← Diego Costa
81'
Du Queiroz← F. Cristaldo
84'
M. Enoumba← J. Amoroso
89'
Gustavo Nunes
90'
D. Rojas← D. Aimar

Possession

46%Gremio

Shots

20Gremio

Pass accuracy

49%Gremio

Statistics

GremioThe
Overview
46%Possession54%
20Total Shots9
1.22Expected Goals (xG)0.56
10Corners4
8Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots9
10On Target2
4Off Target5
6Blocked2
13Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
383Total Passes454
309Accurate Passes379
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
-1.97Goals Prevented-1.97
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Gremio vs The Strongest

Gremio beat The Strongest 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 29, 2024.

Goals: Y. Soteldo (14'), João Pedro (50'), Everton Galdino (67'), Gustavo Nunes (89').

The Strongest controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, Paraná.