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Gremio U17 vs Vitoria U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vitoria U17
Vitoria U17
6/17/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gremio U1759%
×Draw20%
Vitoria U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
2.30
Vitoria U17
1.30

Gremio U17 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Vitoria U17
1.00

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Vitoria U17
2.00

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Vitoria U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Vitoria U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
79%
Gremio U17 or Vitoria U17
80%
Draw or Vitoria U17
41%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
38%
Vitoria U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
90%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
67%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
40%
Vitoria U17 1+ goals
73%
Vitoria U17 2+ goals
37%
Vitoria U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
74%
Vitoria U17 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Vitoria U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Vitoria U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Vitoria U17 attack 1.00 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
59%
level
20%
Vitoria U17 scores more
21%

Gremio U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio U17 vs Vitoria U17

Vitoria U17 beat Gremio U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on June 17, 2026.