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Gremio U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
Preview
20:00
Sao Paulo U17
Sao Paulo U17
9/29/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 19
46%
Gremio U17
model favours
46%22%32%

Sao Paulo U17 score first in only 6% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gremio U1746%
×Draw22%
Sao Paulo U1732%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
1.95
Sao Paulo U17
1.60

Gremio U17 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Sao Paulo U17
1.59

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Sao Paulo U17
1.29

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Sao Paulo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Sao Paulo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
68%
Gremio U17 or Sao Paulo U17
78%
Draw or Sao Paulo U17
54%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
26%
Sao Paulo U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
86%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
58%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
31%
Sao Paulo U17 1+ goals
80%
Sao Paulo U17 2+ goals
47%
Sao Paulo U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
59%
Sao Paulo U17 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Sao Paulo U17 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Sao Paulo U17 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sao Paulo U17 attack 1.59 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
46%
level
22%
Sao Paulo U17 scores more
32%

Gremio U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches
  • Sao Paulo U17 are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Gremio U17 sit 20, Sao Paulo U17 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLLWW
U17
DWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gremio U17 vs Sao Paulo U17 — Match Preview

Gremio U17 face Sao Paulo U17 on September 29, 2026 in this Brasileiro U17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.