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Gremio U17 vs Goias U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Goias U17
Goias U17
7/31/2024Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Group Stage - 5Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gremio U1776%
×Draw13%
Goias U1711%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
3.30
Goias U17
1.20

Gremio U17 creates 175% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Goias U17
0.80

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Goias U17
4.00

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Goias U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 82Under: 1882%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Goias U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
89%
Gremio U17 or Goias U17
87%
Draw or Goias U17
24%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
58%
Goias U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
96%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
83%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
62%
Goias U17 1+ goals
70%
Goias U17 2+ goals
34%
Goias U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
88%
Goias U17 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Goias U17 away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Goias U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Goias U17 attack 0.80 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
76%
level
13%
Goias U17 scores more
11%

Gremio U17 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Gremio U17 4–1 Goias U17

Gremio U17 beat Goias U17 4-1 in Brasileiro U17 on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva in Eldoraldo do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.