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Gremio U17 vs Fortaleza U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
Preview
20:00
Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
8/22/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 13
62%
Gremio U17
model favours
62%19%19%

Fortaleza U17 score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gremio U1762%
×Draw19%
Fortaleza U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
2.33
Fortaleza U17
1.22

Gremio U17 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Fortaleza U17
0.83

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Fortaleza U17
2.06

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
81%
Gremio U17 or Fortaleza U17
81%
Draw or Fortaleza U17
38%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
40%
Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
90%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
67%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
41%
Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
77%
Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.33

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
62%
level
19%
Fortaleza U17 scores more
19%

Gremio U17 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLLWW
U17
LLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gremio U17 face Fortaleza U17 (Brasileiro U17)

Brasileiro U17 returns with Gremio U17 hosting Fortaleza U17. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.