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Fortaleza U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Fortaleza U17
Fortaleza U17
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
Bryan Gustavo 70'
7/24/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fortaleza U1761%
×Draw20%
Gremio U1719%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza U17
2.13
Gremio U17
1.10

Fortaleza U17 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fortaleza U17
1.79
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Fortaleza U17
0.89
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fortaleza U17 or draw
81%
Fortaleza U17 or Gremio U17
80%
Draw or Gremio U17
39%

Winning margin

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+
38%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals
88%
Fortaleza U17 2+ goals
63%
Fortaleza U17 3+ goals
35%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
67%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
30%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)
76%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza U17 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza U17 attack 1.79 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Fortaleza U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Fortaleza U17 scores more
61%
level
20%
Gremio U17 scores more
19%

Fortaleza U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Fortaleza U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Bryan Gustavo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Fortaleza U17 0–1 Gremio U17

Gremio U17 beat Fortaleza U17 1-0 in Brasileiro U17 on July 24, 2025.

Goals: Bryan Gustavo (70').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Ribamar Bezerra in Maracanaú, Ceará.