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Gremio U17 vs Cruzeiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cruzeiro U17
Cruzeiro U17
6/3/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gremio U1748%
×Draw20%
Cruzeiro U1732%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
2.30
Cruzeiro U17
1.85

Gremio U17 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Cruzeiro U17
2.10

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Cruzeiro U17
2.00

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Cruzeiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
68%
Gremio U17 or Cruzeiro U17
80%
Draw or Cruzeiro U17
52%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
29%
Cruzeiro U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
90%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
67%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
40%
Cruzeiro U17 1+ goals
84%
Cruzeiro U17 2+ goals
55%
Cruzeiro U17 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
60%
Cruzeiro U17 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Cruzeiro U17 away — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Cruzeiro U17 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Cruzeiro U17 attack 2.10 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
48%
level
20%
Cruzeiro U17 scores more
32%

Gremio U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio U17 vs Cruzeiro U17

Gremio U17 beat Cruzeiro U17 2-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 3, 2026.