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Gremio U17 vs Botafogo U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17
Preview
20:00
Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
8/11/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 11
58%
Gremio U17
model favours
58%19%22%

Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gremio U1758%
×Draw19%
Botafogo U1722%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
2.42
Botafogo U17
1.45

Gremio U17 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Botafogo U17
1.30

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Botafogo U17
2.25

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Botafogo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Botafogo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
78%
Gremio U17 or Botafogo U17
81%
Draw or Botafogo U17
42%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
37%
Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
91%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
69%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
43%
Botafogo U17 1+ goals
77%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
42%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
72%
Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Botafogo U17 away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Botafogo U17 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Botafogo U17 attack 1.30 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
58%
level
19%
Botafogo U17 scores more
22%

Gremio U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Botafogo U17 score first in only 17% of matches
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Gremio U17 sit 20, Botafogo U17 9 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLLWW
U17
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gremio U17 vs Botafogo U17 — Match Preview

Gremio U17 face Botafogo U17 on August 11, 2026 in this Brasileiro U17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.