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Botafogo U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Botafogo U17
Botafogo U17
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
9/16/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 18Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Botafogo U1757%
×Draw19%
Gremio U1724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botafogo U17
2.40
Gremio U17
1.52

Botafogo U17 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Botafogo U17
2.33
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Botafogo U17
1.72
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Botafogo U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Botafogo U17 or draw
76%
Botafogo U17 or Gremio U17
81%
Draw or Gremio U17
43%

Winning margin

Botafogo U17 wins by 2+
36%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botafogo U17 1+ goals
91%
Botafogo U17 2+ goals
69%
Botafogo U17 3+ goals
42%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
78%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
45%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Botafogo U17 (draw refunded)
70%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo U17 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo U17 attack 2.33 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.40

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Botafogo U17 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botafogo U17 scores more
57%
level
19%
Gremio U17 scores more
24%

Botafogo U17 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botafogo U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Botafogo U17 3–3 Gremio U17

Botafogo U17 and Gremio U17 drew 3-3 in Brasileiro U17 on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro.