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Gremio U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Gremio U17
Gremio U17advanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
Lucca 49', 7'
B. G. Joao Pedro 39'
Roger 35'
Wallysson 50'
10/13/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gremio U1750%
×Draw20%
Atlético Mineiro U1730%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio U17
2.27
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.73

Gremio U17 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Gremio U17
2.60
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.86

allows per match

Gremio U17
1.60
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.95

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw
70%
Gremio U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
80%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
50%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals
90%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
66%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
39%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
82%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
63%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.27

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gremio U17 scores more
50%
level
20%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
30%

Gremio U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Lucca
35'
Roger
39'
B. G. Joao Pedro
49'
Lucca
50'
Wallysson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Gremio U17 beat Atlético Mineiro U17 4-1 in Brasileiro U17 on October 13, 2025.

Goals: Lucca (7', 49'), Roger (35'), B. G. Joao Pedro (39'), Wallysson (50').