Gremio U17 5–2 America MG U17: Result & Stats

Gremio U17

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

America MG U17

B. G. Joao Pedro 82', 70'

Adrielson 33', 7'

B. dos Santos 20'

Paulo Roberto 68'

Pedro 32'

6/4/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gremio U1760%

×Draw19%

America MG U1721%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio U17Expected goals in this matchAmerica MG U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.44

Gremio U17

2.50

America MG U17

1.44

Gremio U17 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

2.60

creates per match

1.28

1.60

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Gremio U17

2.60

America MG U17

1.28

allows per match

Gremio U17

1.60

America MG U17

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par

America MG U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

America MG U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw

79%

Gremio U17 or America MG U17

81%

Draw or America MG U17

40%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+

39%

America MG U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals

92%

Gremio U17 2+ goals

71%

Gremio U17 3+ goals

45%

America MG U17 1+ goals

76%

America MG U17 2+ goals

42%

America MG U17 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)

74%

America MG U17 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

America MG U17 away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + America MG U17 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.50

America MG U17 attack 1.28 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gremio U17 scores more

60%

level

19%

America MG U17 scores more

21%

Gremio U17 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

20'

32'

33'

68'

70'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff