Gremio Prudente U20 3–1 Mirassol U20

Gremio Prudente U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mirassol U20

P. Dionisio 79' (OG)

d. S. Wagner M. G. 64' (pen)

E. Franco 24'

Unknown 54'

7/19/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Paulo Constantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Gremio Prudente U2039%

×Draw24%

Mirassol U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Prudente U20Expected goals in this matchMirassol U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.52

Gremio Prudente U20

1.56

Mirassol U20

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

1.57

creates per match

1.91

1.14

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.57

Mirassol U20

1.91

allows per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.14

Mirassol U20

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gremio Prudente U20 or draw

63%

Gremio Prudente U20 or Mirassol U20

76%

Draw or Mirassol U20

61%

Winning margin

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+

19%

Mirassol U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals

79%

Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals

46%

Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals

21%

Mirassol U20 1+ goals

78%

Mirassol U20 2+ goals

45%

Mirassol U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.57 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more

39%

level

24%

Mirassol U20 scores more

37%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

E. Franco

54'

64'

d. S. Wagner M. G.Penalty

79'

P. DionisioOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff