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Gremio Prudente U20 vs Mauá U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mauá U20
Mauá U20
Unknown 41', 20'
7/18/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Paulo Constantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gremio Prudente U2056%
×Draw24%
Mauá U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Prudente U20
1.68
Mauá U20
0.88

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gremio Prudente U20
1.57
Mauá U20
0.61

allows per match

Gremio Prudente U20
1.14
Mauá U20
1.78

finishing

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par
Mauá U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓

Mauá U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio Prudente U20 or draw
80%
Gremio Prudente U20 or Mauá U20
76%
Draw or Mauá U20
44%

Winning margin

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
31%
Mauá U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
81%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
50%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
24%
Mauá U20 1+ goals
59%
Mauá U20 2+ goals
22%
Mauá U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Mauá U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Mauá U20 away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.57 + Mauá U20 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Mauá U20 attack 0.61 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
56%
level
24%
Mauá U20 scores more
20%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
40'
41'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Prudente U20 vs Mauá U20

Gremio Prudente U20 beat Mauá U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 18, 2025.

Goals: ? (20', 41').

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Constantino in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo.