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Gremio Prudente U20 vs Marília U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
FT
2 – 0
Marília U20
Marília U20
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Paulo Constantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gremio Prudente U2038%
×Draw25%
Marília U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Prudente U20
1.41
Marília U20
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Gremio Prudente U20
1.57
Marília U20
1.63

allows per match

Gremio Prudente U20
1.14
Marília U20
1.25

finishing

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par
Marília U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓

Marília U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gremio Prudente U20 or draw
63%
Gremio Prudente U20 or Marília U20
75%
Draw or Marília U20
62%

Winning margin

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
18%
Marília U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
76%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
41%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
17%
Marília U20 1+ goals
75%
Marília U20 2+ goals
40%
Marília U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Marília U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Marília U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.57 + Marília U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
38%
level
25%
Marília U20 scores more
37%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Gremio Prudente U20 2–0 Marília U20

Gremio Prudente U20 beat Marília U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Constantino in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo.