Gremio Prudente U20 vs Capivariano U20

Gremio Prudente U20

Preview

18:00

Capivariano U20

8/7/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 10

44%

Gremio Prudente U20

model favours

44%26%31%

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gremio Prudente U2044%

×Draw26%

Capivariano U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Prudente U20Expected goals in this matchCapivariano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.21

Gremio Prudente U20

1.49

Capivariano U20

1.21

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.57

Capivariano U20

1.29

allows per match

Gremio Prudente U20

1.14

Capivariano U20

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Capivariano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Prudente U20 ↓

Capivariano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gremio Prudente U20 or draw

69%

Gremio Prudente U20 or Capivariano U20

74%

Draw or Capivariano U20

56%

Winning margin

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+

21%

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals

77%

Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals

44%

Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals

19%

Capivariano U20 1+ goals

70%

Capivariano U20 2+ goals

34%

Capivariano U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Capivariano U20 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.57 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Capivariano U20 attack 1.29 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more

44%

level

26%

Capivariano U20 scores more

31%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

DWLWW

U20

WDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff