Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Capivariano U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Capivariano U20
Capivariano U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
Maranhao 14'
H. Rocha 64'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Capivariano U2041%
×Draw26%
Gremio Prudente U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Capivariano U20
1.44
Gremio Prudente U20
1.28

Capivariano U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Capivariano U20
1.65
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Capivariano U20
1.18
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Capivariano U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capivariano U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Capivariano U20 or draw
66%
Capivariano U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
74%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
59%

Winning margin

Capivariano U20 wins by 2+
19%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Capivariano U20 1+ goals
76%
Capivariano U20 2+ goals
42%
Capivariano U20 3+ goals
18%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
72%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
37%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Capivariano U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capivariano U20 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capivariano U20 attack 1.65 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Capivariano U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Capivariano U20 scores more
41%
level
26%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
34%

Capivariano U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Capivariano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Maranhao
20'
64'
H. Rocha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Capivariano U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Capivariano U20 and Gremio Prudente U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: Maranhao (14'), H. Rocha (64').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Lins Ribeiro Guimarães in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo.