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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Vitória BA W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
9/30/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W52%
×Draw23%
Vitória BA W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.82
Vitória BA W
1.17

Gremio Osasco Audax W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Vitória BA W
0.70

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Vitória BA W
2.65

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Vitória BA W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Vitória BA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
76%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Vitória BA W
77%
Draw or Vitória BA W
48%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
29%
Vitória BA W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
84%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
54%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
27%
Vitória BA W 1+ goals
69%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
33%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
68%
Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Vitória BA W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Vitória BA W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Vitória BA W attack 0.70 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
52%
level
23%
Vitória BA W scores more
24%

Gremio Osasco Audax W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Vitória BA W

Gremio Osasco Audax W beat Vitória BA W 2-1 in Brasileiro Women on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.