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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
7/11/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W34%
×Draw27%
Sao Jose W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.21
Sao Jose W
1.34

Sao Jose W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
60%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Sao Jose W
73%
Draw or Sao Jose W
66%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
14%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
70%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
34%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
12%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
74%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
39%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
46%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
34%
level
27%
Sao Jose W scores more
40%

Sao Jose W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Gremio Osasco Audax W 0–1 Sao Jose W

Sao Jose W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo).