Gremio Osasco Audax W 0–4 Rio Preto W

Gremio Osasco Audax W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Rio Preto W

6/26/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W23%

×Draw26%

Rio Preto W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Osasco Audax WExpected goals in this matchRio Preto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.53

Gremio Osasco Audax W

0.93

Rio Preto W

1.53

Rio Preto W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.43

1.64

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.00

Rio Preto W

1.43

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.64

Rio Preto W

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Rio Preto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Rio Preto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw

49%

Gremio Osasco Audax W or Rio Preto W

74%

Draw or Rio Preto W

77%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+

8%

Rio Preto W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals

61%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals

24%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals

7%

Rio Preto W 1+ goals

78%

Rio Preto W 2+ goals

45%

Rio Preto W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)

31%

Rio Preto W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Rio Preto W away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Rio Preto W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Rio Preto W attack 1.43 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more

23%

level

26%

Rio Preto W scores more

51%

Rio Preto W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rio Preto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff