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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Portuguesa W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Portuguesa W
Portuguesa W
5/16/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W63%
×Draw20%
Portuguesa W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.15
Portuguesa W
1.03

Gremio Osasco Audax W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Portuguesa W
0.43

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Portuguesa W
3.29

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Portuguesa W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Portuguesa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
83%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Portuguesa W
80%
Draw or Portuguesa W
37%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
39%
Portuguesa W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
88%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
63%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
36%
Portuguesa W 1+ goals
64%
Portuguesa W 2+ goals
28%
Portuguesa W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
78%
Portuguesa W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Portuguesa W away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Portuguesa W defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Portuguesa W attack 0.43 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
63%
level
20%
Portuguesa W scores more
17%

Gremio Osasco Audax W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Portuguesa W

Gremio Osasco Audax W beat Portuguesa W 5-1 in Brasileiro Women on May 16, 2018.