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Gremio Osasco Audax W vs Minas ICESP W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Minas ICESP W
Minas ICESP W
3/20/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W43%
×Draw26%
Minas ICESP W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.42
Minas ICESP W
1.14

Gremio Osasco Audax W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.00
Minas ICESP W
0.63

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.64
Minas ICESP W
1.83

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par
Minas ICESP W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Minas ICESP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw
70%
Gremio Osasco Audax W or Minas ICESP W
74%
Draw or Minas ICESP W
57%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
21%
Minas ICESP W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
76%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
41%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
17%
Minas ICESP W 1+ goals
68%
Minas ICESP W 2+ goals
32%
Minas ICESP W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
59%
Minas ICESP W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Minas ICESP W away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Minas ICESP W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Minas ICESP W attack 0.63 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
43%
level
26%
Minas ICESP W scores more
30%

Gremio Osasco Audax W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Gremio Osasco Audax W 2–0 Minas ICESP W

Gremio Osasco Audax W beat Minas ICESP W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti (Osasco, São Paulo).