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Gremio Osasco Audax vs Votoraty — Paulista Série B 2026

Gremio Osasco Audax
Gremio Osasco Audax
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Votoraty
Votoraty
Rafael Alves 19'
Witaua 10'
6/7/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax69%
×Draw21%
Votoraty10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gremio Osasco Audax
1.86
Votoraty
0.55

Gremio Osasco Audax creates 238% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax
1.33
Votoraty
0.60

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax
0.50
Votoraty
2.40

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax+0.00on par
Votoraty+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax ↓

Votoraty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax or draw
90%
Gremio Osasco Audax or Votoraty
79%
Draw or Votoraty
31%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax wins by 2+
42%
Votoraty wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax 1+ goals
84%
Gremio Osasco Audax 2+ goals
55%
Gremio Osasco Audax 3+ goals
28%
Votoraty 1+ goals
42%
Votoraty 2+ goals
11%
Votoraty 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax (draw refunded)
87%
Votoraty (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Votoraty away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax attack 1.33 + Votoraty defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Votoraty attack 0.60 + Gremio Osasco Audax defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax scores more
69%
level
21%
Votoraty scores more
10%

Gremio Osasco Audax at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Witaua
19'
Rafael Alves

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gremio Osasco Audax vs Votoraty

Gremio Osasco Audax beat Votoraty 2-0 in Paulista Série B on June 7, 2026.

Goals: Witaua (10'), Rafael Alves (19').