Gremio Osasco Audax 0–1 Flamengo SP: Result & Stats

Gremio Osasco Audax

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Flamengo SP

Unknown 62'

6/20/2026

Paulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax40%

×Draw30%

Flamengo SP30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Osasco AudaxExpected goals in this matchFlamengo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.94

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.14

Flamengo SP

0.94

Gremio Osasco Audax creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

1.37

0.50

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax

1.33

Flamengo SP

1.37

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax

0.50

Flamengo SP

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax+0.00on par

Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax ↓

Flamengo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax or draw

70%

Gremio Osasco Audax or Flamengo SP

70%

Draw or Flamengo SP

60%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax wins by 2+

17%

Flamengo SP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax 1+ goals

68%

Gremio Osasco Audax 2+ goals

32%

Gremio Osasco Audax 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo SP 1+ goals

61%

Flamengo SP 2+ goals

24%

Flamengo SP 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax (draw refunded)

57%

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax attack 1.33 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Gremio Osasco Audax defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax scores more

40%

level

30%

Flamengo SP scores more

30%

Gremio Osasco Audax at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gremio Osasco Audax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff