Grêmio Maringá 1–1 Toledo: Result & Stats

Grêmio Maringá

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Toledo

Roger 31'

Unknown 18'

6/25/2023

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá31%

×Draw23%

Toledo46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grêmio MaringáExpected goals in this matchToledo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.76

Grêmio Maringá

1.40

Toledo

1.76

Toledo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

0.75

creates per match

0.52

3.00

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá

0.75

Toledo

0.52

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá

3.00

Toledo

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

Toledo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw

54%

Grêmio Maringá or Toledo

77%

Draw or Toledo

69%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+

14%

Toledo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals

75%

Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals

41%

Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals

17%

Toledo 1+ goals

83%

Toledo 2+ goals

52%

Toledo 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)

40%

Toledo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Toledo away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + Toledo defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Toledo attack 0.52 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more

31%

level

23%

Toledo scores more

46%

Toledo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

31'

Roger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff