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Grêmio Maringá vs Rio Branco PR — Paranaense - 2 2020

Grêmio Maringá
Grêmio Maringá
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Rio Branco PR
Rio Branco PR
Murilo 71'
Thales 84'
Adiel 63'
C. Vieira 27'
F. Valdivia 11'
5/11/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá19%
×Draw20%
Rio Branco PR61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio Maringá
1.15
Rio Branco PR
2.23

Rio Branco PR creates 94% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá
0.75
Rio Branco PR
1.45

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá
3.00
Rio Branco PR
1.55

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par
Rio Branco PR+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

Rio Branco PR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw
39%
Grêmio Maringá or Rio Branco PR
80%
Draw or Rio Branco PR
81%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+
7%
Rio Branco PR wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals
68%
Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals
32%
Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals
11%
Rio Branco PR 1+ goals
89%
Rio Branco PR 2+ goals
65%
Rio Branco PR 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)
23%
Rio Branco PR (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Rio Branco PR away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + Rio Branco PR defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rio Branco PR attack 1.45 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more
19%
level
20%
Rio Branco PR scores more
61%

Rio Branco PR at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rio Branco PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Valdivia
27'
C. Vieira
63'
Adiel
71'
Murilo
84'
Thales

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Grêmio Maringá 1–4 Rio Branco PR

Rio Branco PR beat Grêmio Maringá 4-1 in Paranaense - 2 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: F. Valdivia (11'), C. Vieira (27'), Adiel (63'), Murilo (71'), Thales (84').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.