Grêmio Maringá 1–3 PSTC Procopense: Result & Stats

Grêmio Maringá

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

PSTC Procopense

Unknown 90+2'

Unknown 34', 29', 12'

5/28/2023

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Grêmio Maringá19%

×Draw20%

PSTC Procopense62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grêmio MaringáExpected goals in this matchPSTC Procopense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

2.23

Grêmio Maringá

1.14

PSTC Procopense

2.23

PSTC Procopense creates 96% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

0.75

creates per match

1.47

3.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Grêmio Maringá

0.75

PSTC Procopense

1.47

allows per match

Grêmio Maringá

3.00

PSTC Procopense

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grêmio Maringá+0.00on par

PSTC Procopense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Maringá ↓

PSTC Procopense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Grêmio Maringá or draw

38%

Grêmio Maringá or PSTC Procopense

80%

Draw or PSTC Procopense

81%

Winning margin

Grêmio Maringá wins by 2+

7%

PSTC Procopense wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Grêmio Maringá 1+ goals

68%

Grêmio Maringá 2+ goals

32%

Grêmio Maringá 3+ goals

11%

PSTC Procopense 1+ goals

89%

PSTC Procopense 2+ goals

65%

PSTC Procopense 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Maringá (draw refunded)

23%

PSTC Procopense (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Maringá at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

PSTC Procopense away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Maringá attack 0.75 + PSTC Procopense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

PSTC Procopense attack 1.47 + Grêmio Maringá defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Grêmio Maringá scores more

19%

level

20%

PSTC Procopense scores more

62%

PSTC Procopense at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PSTC Procopense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

29'

33'

34'

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff